As of 2025, Europe’s Muslim population is estimated at around 46 million, or about 6% of the continent’s total population of roughly 745 million. This is up from 4.9% in 2016, driven by migration (about 50-60% of growth) and higher fertility rates (40-50%). Most Muslim migrants come from the Middle East and North Africa (e.g., Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Morocco), South Asia (e.g., Pakistan, Bangladesh), and Sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Somalia, Nigeria). In recent years (2010-2023), over 3 million Muslim migrants arrived in Europe, with peaks during the 2015-2016 refugee crisis.
Pakistanis specifically number around 1-2 million across Europe, concentrated in the UK (1.2 million), Italy, Spain, and smaller groups in Denmark and Norway.
Muslims are unevenly spread. France has the largest absolute number (about 6-7 million, 9-10% of population), followed by Germany (5-6 million, 6-7%), the UK (4-5 million, 6-7%), and Italy (2-3 million, 4-5%).
From 2010-2023, key entry points include Germany (1.5+ million Muslim migrants), Sweden (500,000+), and the UK (400,000+).
Muslim women in Europe have a total fertility rate (TFR) of about 2.6 children per woman, compared to 1.6 for non-Muslims. Europe’s overall TFR is 1.5, below replacement (2.1), leading to population decline without migration.
Muslims account for disproportionate growth: e.g., in France, they contribute ~30% of births despite being 9-10% of the population.
By 2050, France could have more muslim births than native French births.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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